Posts Tagged Economy
by: Rick Ackerman
August 8, 2012
Anyone betting that the global financial system will continue to muddle along indefinitely deserves to reap the whirlwind that’s coming. As the rest of us well know, the international banking system is being kept afloat solely by political lies, stupidity, corruption, greed and, most of all, egregiously misplaced confidence. It would seem to be only a matter of time before the rotted timbers of this belief system give way. But what will be the catalyst? The possibility or even likelihood that the financial system will be toppled by some event no one was expecting was an implicit theme of Nassim Taleb’s widely read 2004 book, Fooled by Randomness. In the New York Times, Taleb asserted the following: What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
by: Angela Monaghan
August 7, 2012
The British economy shrank by 0.2pc in the three months to the end of the July according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
It followed a 0.7pc fall in gross domestic product in the three months to the end of June, which left Britain in its first double-dip recession since 1975.
The think-tank estimated the economy grew by 1.4pc in July alone, but senior research fellow Simon Kirby said the number was “flattered” partly by a rebound in activity following the work lost over the Jubilee bank holiday weekend in June.
“The underlying economy is probably weaker than the figure would suggest. It doesn’t change the view that the economy is essentially flat,” he said.
NIESR’s estimate came as the Bank of England was poised to give a gloomy assessment of the economy’s prospects in its latest forecasts on Wednesday.
The Bank of England is expected to sharply downgrade its forecasts for growth and inflation when it publishes its August Inflation Report .
By: Tyler Durden
August 7, 2012