Posts Tagged European Central Bank
via: ZeroHedge
by: Tyler Durden
August 7, 2012
Market Optimistic On Central Bank Intervention
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,613.00, EUR 1,300.39, and GBP 1,032.39 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,606.75, EUR 1,299.43 and GBP 1,032.28 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $28.08/oz, €22.71/oz and £18.01/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,415.70/oz, palladium at $582.50/oz and rhodium at $1,100/oz.
Ireland observed a national holiday on Monday.
Gold climbed $8.40 or 0.52% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,611.20/oz. Silver hit a high of $27.985 and closed with a gain of 0.5%.
bond, British Pound, China, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Consumer Credit, European Central Bank, Eurozone, Hong Kong, Initial Jobless Claims, Ireland, Israel, Italy, reuters, Trade Balance, Twitter, Wholesale Inventories
via: ZeroHedge
by: Tyler Durden
August 6, 2012
The very vocal head of the world’s largest bond fund has long been critical of the global ponzi system better known as the “capital markets.” Now, finally, he shifts his attention to Europe, where the interests of his parent – Europe’s largest insurance company Allianz are near and dear to the heart, and deconstructs not only the biggest challenge facing Europe: getting access to your money, but also the fatal flaws that will make achieving this now impossible. To wit: “Psst! Investors – do you wanna know a secret? Do you wanna know what Angela Merkel, François Hollande, Christine Lagarde and Mario Draghi all share in common? They want your money!” …. but… “private investors are balking – and for what it seems are good reasons – because policy makers’ efforts have been, until now, a day late and a euro short, or more accurately, years late and a trillion euros short.” And so they will continue failing ever upward, as permissive monetary policy which allows failed fiscal policy to be perpetuated, will do nothing about fixing the underlying problems facing the insolvent continent. Then one day, the ECB, whose credibility was already massively shaken last week, will be exposed for the naked emperor it is. Only then will Europe’s politicians finally sit down and begin doing the right thing. It will be too late.
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via: ZeroHedge
by: Tyler Durden
August 6, 2012
Update: IBEX resumes for trade with a nearly 5 hour delay, last seen higher at 1.68%. We can only hope the Knight algo is not to blame for yet another round of headless chicken buying. Last week it was Knight, today it is the Spanish stock market. Following a halt for a “technical glitch” just after 4 am Eastern time, Spain’s stock exchange, the IBEX, is still not trading as of this posting. So how will Spain and the ECB declare victory if they are unable to demonstrate the daily ramp in Spanish stocks (where shorting financials is once again forbidden…. because Europe continues to be “fixed”).
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by: Tyler Durden
August 4, 2012
There has been much confusion over last week’s remarks by Mario Draghi, with the prevailing narrative being that the market first got what Draghi meant wrong (when it plunged), then right (when it soared). The confusion is further granulated by attempts to explain what was merely a desperate attempt at delaying a decision for action, which was inevitable considering the now open opposition by Buba’s Weidmann, into a formal and planned plotline: “Inverse Twist” or other such technical jargon is what we have seen floating around. The reality is that, just like all other central bankers, Draghi did what he does best: use big words and threats of action in hope it will buy him a few extra days of time. The reality is also that, just like when the LTRO was announced, the market did get it right initially, when peripheral bonds plunged, and got it wrong over the subsequent 3 monthswhen bond prices rose, only to collapse to new lows (and in the case of Spain – record high yields as of two weeks ago). Back then, the ECB merely bought a few months time with itstransitory intervention. This time it has at best bought a few days with the lack of any actual action. And yet, Draghi didleave a way out, for at least another brief respite (where unless Europe expands the available bailout machinery yet again, the respite will have an even briefer half life than that from the LTROs). The way out is simple, and in order to avoid any confusion, we will use an allegory from the movie Batman: Spain and Italy can be saved. But first they must be destroyed.
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via: ZeroHedge
by: Tyler Durden
August 3, 2012
While endless jawboning and threats of more free (and even
paid for those close to the discount window) money can do miracles for markets, if only for a day or two, by spooking every new incremental layer of shorts into covering, there is one problem with this strategy:
the “flow” pathway is about to run out of purchasing power. Recall that Goldman
finally admitted that when it comes to monetary policy, it really is all about
the flow, just as we have been claiming for years. What does this mean – simple:
the Fed needs to constantly infuse the financial system with new, unsterilized reserves in order to provide bank traders with the dry powder needed to ramp risk higher. Logically, this makes intuitive sense: if talking the market up was all that was needed, Ben would simply say he would like to see the Dow at 36,000 and leave it at that. That’s great, but unless the Fed is the one doing the actual buying, those who wish to take advantage of the Fed’s jawboning
need to have access to reserves, which via Shadow banking conduits, i.e., repos, can be converted to fungible cash, which can then be used to ramp up ES, SPY and other risk aggregates (just like JPM was doing by selling IG9 and becoming
the market in that axe). As it turns out, today we may have just hit the limit on how much banks can do without an actual injection of new reserves by the Fed. Read: a
new unsterilized QE program.
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by: Tyler Durden
August 2, 2012
Ken Wattret who is chief Euroarea economist for BNP is quite furious with Draghi: the reason? Precisely what we warned last week: that Draghi is posturing and attempting to bluff the Bundesbank into accepting his “conditions.” End result, Buba called the bluff and the ECB blew it in a fashion so spectacular that Draghi actually had to defend himself from reporter who were mocking him and the ECB with questions if the ECB won’t get its inflation call wrong “again.” It also prompted the head of the Central Bank to spin off Mario Draghi FX trading advisory, of which he is the sole employee, and issue the following Series 7 and 63 unauthorized advice: not to short the EUR, which incidentally was the dumbest thing he could say, because the one thing that can save Europe is if its currency keeps sliding (much to the benefit of Germany) in the process boosting Europe’s manufacturing sector. That he openly warned against this is perhaps precisely why the EUR tumbled just after he said it. Trust us: the Chairsatan would love if investors were shorting the USD. Anyway, back to Draghi and the biggest French bank which realizes all too well one simple thing: Draghi no longer has credibility, and all those European banks which rely on the ECB for their day to day operations (like BNP) are suddenly far more exposed than ever before.
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via: ZeroHedge
by: Tyler Durden
July 30, 2012
ECB head Jean-Claude Trichet: July 27, 2011:
“Speculating on Greece defaulting is a certain way of losing out. Such a speculation would be a sure-fire way of losing money given the decisions taken last Thursday“
And what happened next to Greek bond yields (and inversely, Greek bond prices):
Continue Reading At: ZeroHedge.com
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via: ZeroHedge
by: Tyler Durden
July 30, 2012
Anyone hoping that the bitter animosity between Mario Draghi and Germany will be any less hostile this morning, following last week’s guarantee by Draghi that all shall be well and the ECB will do “anything” to preserve the EUR, only to be followed by Germany’s Schauble essentially saying this is certainly not the case, today we get a clarificationary follow up by Joerg-Uwe Hahn, a member of Merkel’s junior coalition partner, FDP, who said that the German government should consider the “unusual step” of taking legal action against the European Central Bank over bond purchases. While Hahn’s comments are for now seen fringe, the fact that Die Welt has openly broached the topic to an increasingly angrier population (and Spain’s remarks that Germany itself has to be grateful for being bailed out after WWII will not help) will likely only strengthen the resolve of Germany to not relent to provocations by either Monti, as of the June 29 summit, but to demands from both Draghi and Juncker to accept that the ECB’s printing utopia is in fact reality.
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via: ZeroHedge
by: Tyler Durden
July 27, 2012
A lot of desk chatter about this move in risk-assets – and the entire reversion to red on the day in EURUSD – as a WSJ report now circulating suggests that ECB members are not backing reported proposals by President Draghi. Specifically, the statement referenced is the following: “
Many ECB Members Surprised By Draghi’s Comments Suggesting New Bond Buys, Source Tells WSJ”. The bottom line here is that Draghi most likely pulled a Mario Monti (and his hanger on Mariano Rajoy), and spoke up before pre-clearing with Buba’s Weidmann. Draghi thinks that, like Monti with Merkel at the June 29 summit, he can bluff the Bundesbank into submission, and Germany will agree to monetization, especially if markets have risen enough where nothing out of the ECB next week leads to a market plunge (as the WSJ explains below). The problem is that as we patiently explained, Monti got absolutely no concessions our of Merkel, as was seen in the bond yields of Spain after the June 29 summit, which hit record wides a few weeks later. Expect the same this time around too: i.e., Germany will hardly cave in to the European beggars.
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By: Tyler Durden
July 27, 2012
Confirming what we described in detail in March, Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio notes in his Daily Observations that “Spanish banks’ collateral is running out in a way that could force them into an ELA.” The manager of the largest hedge fund in the world – so not some self-perpetuating political mouthpiece - estimates that the Spanish banking system has only a few hundred billion euros left in eligible collateral and that some of the weaker banks are likely already getting close to a point where their collateral is exhausted. Critically, if this occurs, then Spanish banks will need to turn to its own Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) program. An ELA for Spanish banks would likely be several times the size of those in place for Greece and Ireland, further fracturing the uniformity of central bank standards across the eurozone, and the magnitude of funding coming through the national central banks could accelerate rapidly. This increasing Balkanization of European central banks and funding capabilities only entrenches the impossible task of fiscal union as ‘more’ sovereign control transfer will be required in return for any core backstopping. Furthermore, those who are hoping for LTRO3: no collateral, no deal! Which the IMF just confirmed is a flashing red warning:
- IMF: COLLATERAL AT ECB VULNERABLE TO DOWNGRADES, MARGIN CALLS
Just EUR300bn left in Spanish Collateral: Then What?
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