Posts Tagged Turd Ferguson

Historically Low Gold OI Levels

via: TFMetalsReport
August 7, 2012

I was going to post this into the previous note but then decided that it needed it’s own thread.

The Gold Comex is dying. As we speculated late last year (, confidence in the fairness of the CME and Comex is leading investors and traders worldwide to exit the exchange. Growing awareness of the paper game manipulation is surely affecting things but, in my opinion, the biggest driver of this exodus is the failure of the CME Group to adequately backstop customer accounts following the collapse of MFG last October and PFG last month.

The proof is in the numbers so let’s go back and review some so that we can look at this in the proper perspective.

3/21/09 – QE is just beginning as the world is stabilizing following the events of 2008. Total gold OI is 388,000.

12/30/09 – Gold ends the year near $1100 and the total OI has risen to 491,712.

11/11/10 –  Gold is now $1400 and QE2 has just been announced. Total OI is now 644,738.

1/25/11 – We had the huge and strange story about a massive, deferred month hedge being taken off and total OI fell 81,000 contracts in one day to 499,000. Very strange.

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The Giant Sucking Sound In The Paper Gold-Silver Markets – Turd Ferguson

via: FinancialSurvivalNet
July 28, 2012

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Get Ready For Next Week

via: TFMetals
July 27, 2012

The Spec Sheep get sheared twice by being long on Wednesday and short on Friday. The Gold Cartel wins twice and laughs all the way to the bank.

{Now, let’s get one thing straight. I am NOT trying to have it both ways. What I have described above is the most likely outcome for next week. Likely but not 100% certain. Regardless of what happens next week, I am still expecting a hot, explosive and historic summer and fall.}

OK, let’s just wrap up some charts before we get to the weekend. First, The Pig. Where all looked strong earlier this week, the bluster regarding QEIII has buckled its knees, somewhat. It is still well within the channel that has driven it higher since late last year but, with all this talk of easing, it must be watched closely.


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More From Thunder Road

via: TFMetalsReport
July 7, 2012

Some weekend reading but also we have the winners of the latest Hat Contest.

Let’s get to the Hat Contest first. Remember, for this contest, we used the closing Globex prices, as shown on the kitco chars on the main page. As everyone can see, gold closed at $1582.40 (yuck) and silver finished at $27.10 (ick). The entries were graciously compiled by Turdite “rl999″ and the winners are:

  • In gold, with a guess of $1582.16 – “interwebzmonies”
  • In silver, with a spot-on guess of $27.10 – “himalaya2″

As per usual, I need the winners to email me at tfmetalsreport at gmail dot com. I need your shipping info.

OK, back to business. There wasn’t a CoT yesterday. Because last Wednesday was a federal holiday and because the CoT is cranked out by federal employees (CFTC), the CoT won’t be released until Monday. What a joke this is! Try getting away with that in the private sector. Do you think your private sector boss would allow this? If a report is due on Friday, then it’s due on Friday. Additionally, it just goes to show how purposefully opaque the CoT is. As Uncle Ted has repeatedly pointed out, there is NO REASON that the CoT can’t be released the day after the survey. The delay in releasing the information makes it less valuable and, therefore, the markets easier to manipulate. Releasing the CoT yesterday would have been after just TWO business days and, clearly, we can’t have that now can we? Again, what a joke.

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As If You Needed More Proof…

via: TFMetalsReport
July 6, 2012

 …Of what a joke the metals markets have become. Up. Down. All on the “non-news” of an 80,000 NFP. As John Williams told us in last week’s podcast, the NFP data point is meaningless if you take it as a stand-alone indicator. It simply provides a reason for HFTs to scalp each other. Witness today.

“Conventional” economic wisdom always held that the U.S. economy had to add 200,000 jobs per month to be considered “growing”. The last three months…not so much. In fact, Q2 of 2012 was the worst quarterly performance since mid 2010. And what happened in November 2010??

Regardless, the metals spiked on the news because it was another lousy data point. They then almost as quickly get squashed as The Cartel Monkeys and the HFTs jam things back down, tripping sell stops along the way. I gave up (for now) trying to trade this nonsense late last year. It’s simply too frustrating for me to find it enjoyable. Andy, on the other hand, relishes in the volatility and, again, that is why I jumped at the opportunity to partner with him. I do not have the expertise nor do I have the patience to trade these conditions. Andy does and, consequently, The Army is having another very good day. He nailed it. Here’s just one of his entries, from an hour or so before the headlines:

06:47:50 andy: Regardless of news the reaction I expect from NFP will be extremely volatile and 2 way. Obviously if we see a very bad # gold will take off to the upside but with good size stair step retracements. If the news is bullish I expect a large initial spike down, if the news is neutral then the 2 way action will be much more volatile. Usually the initial spike is reversed at some point as algo’s attempt to game real flows.

Again, anyone attempting to trade these markets without some type of experienced guidance, is likely doomed to failure.

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